Since the beginning of the current global health crisis, there have been signs that an even larger story is playing out in the background. To make sense of this I have approached it the same way I research and create future scenarios. The present situation is highly complex and has many puzzling features and, like the future, is not easily understood in terms of existing analysis. The prevailing narrative says that we are seeing nothing but a tragic outbreak of zoonotic disease – but the available clues point beyond that and suggest the need for a deeper level of explanation.
The danger is that without deeper exploration the situation can easily be interpreted more negatively than is warranted. Freedoms are being reduced in the name of emergency response, and it is easy to imagine this is part of a plot to remove these freedoms permanently. While this is possible, I also think more hopeful interpretations exist, though they are harder to see. My aim here is to offer a potentially more optimistic interpretation, while still acknowledging that darker scenarios exist and vigilance is important.
What follows is an alternative scenario of the present, an attempt to decipher the larger story by integrating as many scattered puzzle pieces as possible. There are endless possible scenarios, and this is one of several that arguably pass the test of plausibility. However, I’m certainly not claiming or asserting that it is correct. All the ideas here are speculative, but the point of a scenario is to assemble an exploratory narrative and ask “what if” this turns out to be true? Can we learn from it and be more prepared and less likely to be surprised? The key thing is the logic of the story and I simply offer it as an example of the level of explanation that may be needed to make sense of what is happening. Time will tell.
In this scenario of the present, there is indeed a larger story running behind the scenes. Two major covert operations, both global in scope, are underway. One is essentially an outright power play, an attempt to consolidate and extend illicit power that already exists. The other is broadly opposed to the first and has the character of an enforcement operation against an entrenched criminal network, or network of networks.
This is a hidden war, but not a neatly defined war between nation states. The protagonists are alliances of transnational actors that are headquartered in a variety of countries. Both groups are using the outbreak opportunistically as cover for what is happening. The power play group hopes to exploit the travel, transport and business restrictions to consolidate political and economic power, while the enforcement group is using the restrictions in a jujitsu move to limit the physical movements of the power play group. Each side has access to advanced weapons, some secretly developed. It is said that the virus itself was originally engineered as a weapon – but it was released accidentally, which has wrong-footed the power play group.
Both groups operate through a variety of transnational organizations, corporations and agencies, that they control or influence. The two groups have varying degrees of direct power and political influence in various countries. A good part of the indirect influence has been achieved by the power play group through the accumulation of personally incriminating information about powerful individuals. The struggle includes a pivotal contest for control of communications channels and the internet, which have both been gradually weaponized over time.
The present clash between the two groups is the culmination of many years of preparatory moves by both sides. Since the protagonists are distributed across the political and organizational spectrum internationally, this might well be thought of as a global civil war – an expansion of the cyber civil war that has already been underway for several years. As the clash progresses there may be collateral consequences as each side makes moves and counter-moves. These could include temporary utility outages, most probably to electric power. The internet might go down for up to several days. Military movements and operational actions may also be seen.
If the enforcement group makes headway or succeeds in choking off the power play group, they will then face the challenge of explaining publicly what has been going on and gaining trust. Such an announcement could come later in April. The power play group may then make a last-ditch stand consisting of an attempt to discredit and hinder the enforcement group, using media messaging and fomenting social unrest, or even some form of violent retaliation.
This would be a hazardous juncture for the general public, who will be torn by perplexing cross-currents of information, and it is at this point that the advice to stay at home for personal protection would be more important than ever.
This is of course just a scenario, and you may well think that this interpretation of current events is simply too far-fetched. But it might be worth holding in the back of your mind in rough outline, just in case events take an unexpected turn and a more complex explanation is needed.
On the bright side, suppose this scenario is approximately correct and the enforcement group prevail. We could then be witnessing a major historical turning point. Many people have been hoping the outbreak will have a positive transformative outcome, and this deeper story might just be the way that hope is fulfilled.
Only time will tell.