Peak oil now

It is interesting to speculate that the horrendous BP oil mega-spill in the Gulf of Mexico may come to be viewed as the defining moment when Peak (Easy) Oil arrived. Up to now the advent of Peak Oil has been difficult to pinpoint in time because it was a function of many variables in constant dynamic interplay. For instance, as the financial crisis depressed demand, it pushed the peak further away in time. However, in the case of physical phenomena, failures often depend on a small triggering factor. When a sheet of glass under bending stress finally breaks, the failure propagates from a tiny existing crack. By analogy, this may also be true of developments in time. The oil mega-spill has suddenly dramatised the stark difference between the technology and economics of easy oil and the much higher risks and costs of oil from difficult environments. This unpredictable time-specific event may well set off a cascade of responses that "fix" the moment of Peak Oil and precipitate it into reality. Future historians take note!